Newsted Global

Updated: 11 May 2026 | Budget Night: 12 May 2026

 

Budget Night is Tuesday 12 May 2026. Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers the Federal Budget at 7:30 pm AEST. The 2026-27 migration program announcement is expected on Budget night or within days. This article will be updated the moment numbers drop. Everything below is our expert pre-Budget brief,  built on official sources, ministerial statements, and industry intelligence.

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The Headline Numbers First

Stream2025–26 Actual2026–27 Forecast

TOTAL PROGRAM185,000185,000 – 190,000

Employer Sponsored44,00044,000 – 46,000

Skilled Independent (189)16,90018,000 – 22,000 ↑

State/Territory Nominated (190)33,000 (planning)33,000 – 35,000

Regional (491)33,000 (planning)33,000 – 34,000

Talent & Innovation (NIV)4,3004,300 – 5,000

Family Stream52,50052,500 – 55,000

Forecast based on official policy signals, Treasury modelling, and Department of Home Affairs briefings. Not yet confirmed.

What Actually Happened in 2025–26

Let's be straight about the baseline before we talk about what comes next.

On 2 September 2025 — five days after the first anti-immigration march hit the streets — the government finally announced the 2025–26 program at 185,000 places. Same as the year before. Same composition. Former Deputy Secretary of Immigration Dr Abul Rizvi described it plainly as a "cut and paste job" that "took no account of changing circumstances, application rates, backlogs, or demographic trends."

The government was politically spooked. It delayed. It played it safe. The result was a program that left a system in genuine distress — unaddressed.

Here is what that distress looks like heading into Budget night:

• 432,300 bridging visa holders — a record high. People lawfully in Australia, waiting for decisions on applications already lodged. A visa system running on fumes.

• ~425,000 permanent visa applications in the pipeline — roughly 125,000 more than pre-pandemic levels.

• ~120,000 partner visa applications projected in the backlog by 30 June 2026. A crisis building since 2009. Kicked down the road by every government since.

• ~70,000 ENS applications stuck in the queue. Employers waiting. Workers waiting. People choosing Canada, the UK, and Germany because Australia is too slow.

Call it what it is. A visa system that has been underfunded, under-managed, and politically manipulated for the better part of a decade. Budget 2026–27 is the moment to fix it. Or the moment to fail again.

2025–26 State Nomination: The Gap Nobody Talks About Loudly Enough

The government set a planning level of 33,000 state nomination places. It then issued 20,350. That is a 38% shortfall between what was promised and what was delivered.

StateSubclass 190Subclass 491Totalvs 2024–25

New South Wales2,1001,5003,600↓ 28%

Victoria2,7007003,400↓ 32%

Western Australia2,0001,4003,400↓ 32%

Queensland1,8507502,600↑ 117%

South Australia1,3509002,250↓ 41%

Tasmania1,2006501,850↓ 35%

Northern Territory8508001,650↑ 3%

ACT8008001,600↓ 11%

TOTAL12,8507,50020,350↓ 38% vs planning

South Australia was hit hardest — a 41% cut despite Premier Malinauskas lobbying consistently and coherently for more. NSW, Victoria, and WA were each cut by roughly a third. These are not minor adjustments. They are structural constraints that made 2025–26 the most competitive state nomination year in recent memory — point cut-offs above 90 in ICT and engineering, regularly.

Queensland was the standout. More than doubling its allocation on the back of real, sustained economic demand. That momentum continues into 2026–27.

Budget Night 2026: What Is Actually at Stake

This is the first proper migration budget of Labor's second term. No election to hide behind. No more "holding budget" excuses.

Treasurer Chalmers has flagged a productivity package and a savings package. Immigration Minister Tony Burke has said repeatedly that Australia cannot run its health system or build its houses without migration. Treasury has already done the modelling. Net Overseas Migration is forecast at 225,000 for 2026–27 — down from 260,000 in 2025–26, and well below the extraordinary post-pandemic peaks of 528,000 (2022–23) and 435,000 (2023–24).

The permanent program at 185,000 is the engine of skilled intake. If the government wants to hit 225,000 NOM while reducing the temporary visa backlog chaos, a modest permanent program increase is the logical and defensible move.

The 189 visa signal: In a closed-door briefing to the Migration Institute of Australia on 12 March 2026 — minutes of which were published by Sydney law firm NS Legal and reported by VisaHQ — senior Department of Home Affairs officials indicated the Skilled Independent (Subclass 189) visa could "recover substantially" in 2026–27. Officials are modelling higher quotas: unemployment is below 4% and regional skill shortages persist. The 189 grants permanent residency with no state or employer nomination. Its revival would be the biggest single shift in Australia's skilled migration settings since the pandemic.

The partner visa reckoning: The April 2026 cabinet submission circulating in policy circles recommends expanding the partner visa planning level above 40,500 alongside tighter eligibility criteria. Acting here is not generosity — it is legal obligation. A backlog of 120,000 partner applications is a humanitarian failure with legal dimensions.

What Tony Burke Has Said — On the Record

Burke has been doing the media rounds ahead of Budget night. This is what he has said, without the spin:

"Half of our doctors now are born overseas. Half of our registered nurses are born overseas. About a quarter of the tradespeople we need to build homes are born overseas. We can't run our health system or build the houses that we need without immigration now." — Pawan Luthra Podcast, April 2026, covered by The Nightly

"It's not like you could have unlimited immigration without creating a problem with housing and infrastructure. So we need to make sure that it is managed and it's paced."

That second statement is new ground for Burke. For years Labor avoided explicit migration parameters. Experts including Dr Abul Rizvi noted this marks a genuine shift — the first time Burke has acknowledged the trade-off openly. Rizvi also noted that Burke was expected to "put some detail into these statements when he announces the 2026–27 Migration Program later this month."

On the Opposition's proposals, Burke was direct: Taylor's policy had "nothing to do with the national interest and is entirely about sending a vibe to One Nation."

The Political Circus: Shams and Shambles

Let's call some things what they are.

Angus Taylor's "Bad Countries" Policy — A Political Performance, Not a Plan

In early May 2026, Taylor announced his immigration overhaul: social media vetting for all applicants, a "safe country list" to fast-track rejection of protection claims, mandatory Australian Values Statement compliance as a binding visa condition, and a new national screening body. He described migrants from Iran and unspecified Middle Eastern nations as coming from "bad countries" that posed higher risk.

What's actually wrong with this:

Australia already has ASIO, the AFP, and Home Affairs working in an integrated portfolio — which is precisely what the "new national screening body" Taylor proposed describes. Burke was correct: "That is in fact what the Home Affairs portfolio is. It's already there. Already been done."

The social media vetting mirrors Trump's US approach. That policy has been criticised internationally for creating racial profiling, administrative bottlenecks, and negligible security outcomes.

Louisa Jones, migration discipline lead at Australian Catholic University's Thomas More Law School, argued Taylor's proposals risk duplicating powers government already holds. Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy called it "desperate dog-whistling from Angus Taylor, who's desperately trying to compete with One Nation in a race to the bottom."

Nobody in the Coalition answered the real question: if you cut the migration program and impose "bad country" restrictions, which hospitals lose doctors? Which aged care facilities lose nurses? Which construction sites stop building homes? The silence on that question is the tell.

One Nation's 70,000 Target — Economically Illiterate

Sustainable Population Australia — amplified by One Nation — has called for net migration of around 70,000 a year. Less than a third of current levels.

The Parliamentary Budget Office has costed the Coalition's proposed 25% cut to the permanent program. The fiscal impacts are negative. A 70% reduction would be in an entirely different league. Every mainstream economic model — including Treasury's own — confirms Australia needs between 160,000 and 220,000 permanent migrants per year to sustain GDP, maintain workforce numbers, and fund the pension and healthcare system for an ageing population. You cannot simultaneously want a properly funded healthcare system and a migration level of 70,000 a year. The numbers do not work.

The Viral Disinformation — False. Period.

A social media post that went viral on 3 May 2026 claimed Burke had announced he would grant citizenship to all 2.9 million temporary visa holders in Australia. AFP Fact Check confirmed this was false. A Department of Home Affairs spokesperson stated explicitly: no such plan exists. The government is "focused on clear and equitable pathways to permanent residency" through the standard four-year residency process. The claim was invented. It was shared hundreds of thousands of times. It shaped public sentiment on a policy that was never proposed.

State-by-State Outlook 2026–27

🔵 New South Wales — Australia's Most Competitive. No Shortcuts.

2025–26: 3,600 (↓28%) | 2026–27 Forecast: 3,800 – 4,200

NSW is Australia's largest economy. Its migration program reflects that — which means it is also the hardest to crack. Point cut-offs above 90 in ICT and engineering were common in 2025–26. NSW will argue for a larger allocation in 2026–27 on the strength of the National Housing Accord — you need skilled workers to build homes, and roughly a quarter of them are born overseas.

NSW prioritises healthcare, ICT, engineering, construction, and early childhood education. Offshore applicants face a materially higher bar than those already working in NSW. Occupation lists are updated without notice. Check Investment NSW before you plan anything.

Critical rule: 14 days to respond to a nomination invitation. No extensions. No exceptions. Be decision-ready before any invitation arrives.

🔵 Victoria — Largest 190 Quota. Early Childhood Is the Priority.

2025–26: 3,400 (↓32%) | 2026–27 Forecast: 3,400 – 4,000

Victoria holds the largest Subclass 190 allocation nationally and is one of few states open to both onshore and offshore applicants through its standard pathway. Its early childhood education focus is consistent, deliberate, and aligned with the federal childcare expansion — Victoria needs workers in this sector and it says so plainly.

For 2026–27, the Suburban Rail Loop and continued construction pipeline sustain demand for engineers, project managers, and trades workers. ROIs from 2025–26 remain valid. Do not resubmit unless your circumstances have changed.

🟡 Queensland — The Momentum State. Biggest Opportunity in 2026–27.

2025–26: 2,600 (↑117%) | 2026–27 Forecast: 2,800 – 3,500

Queensland more than doubled its allocation in 2025–26. The structural drivers — Brisbane 2032, the $89 billion Big Build, the Energy and Jobs Plan targeting 70% renewable energy by 2032 — are not going anywhere. Construction tradespeople, civil and electrical engineers, healthcare workers, and renewable energy specialists sit at the front of the queue.

The 491 in regional Queensland — Gladstone, Townsville, the Darling Downs, the Pilbara corridor — is one of the most strategically underutilised pathways in the country. 15 bonus points. Real regional employment. Clear pathway to the 191 permanent visa after three years. If you are in the 65–79 points range, this should be your first conversation.

🟡 South Australia — Overdue for a Rebound.

2025–26: 2,250 (↓41%) | 2026–27 Forecast: 2,500 – 3,200

SA copped the deepest cut of any state in 2025–26. Hard to justify given Premier Malinauskas's consistently strong and evidence-based pro-migration posture. The AUKUS submarine program at Osborne will generate sustained demand for specialised engineering, defence manufacturing, and technical trades that Australia's domestic workforce cannot fill. Construction, early childhood, and renewables complete the picture.

SA runs one of the most stable and transparent nomination programs in Australia. Consistent occupation lists. Predictable processing. Offshore applicants fare well here. Expect a meaningful allocation recovery in 2026–27.

🔵 Western Australia — Resources Don't Stop. Neither Should You.

2025–26: 3,400 (↓32%) | 2026–27 Forecast: 3,400 – 4,000

WA's economy runs on iron ore, lithium, LNG, and the engineers and tradespeople who extract, process, and maintain them. A job offer in WA is near-essential for the 190. Without WA employment or study connections, the bar is high.

Regional WA — Pilbara, Goldfields, Geraldton — accounts for 41% of the state's allocation and delivers genuine 491 pathways for applicants with resources sector experience. WA paused its program briefly in 2025–26 during the interim-to-final allocation transition. Monitor the official WA migration portal from July 2026.

🟢 ACT — The Most Underrated Pathway in the Country.

2025–26: 1,600 (↓11%) | 2026–27 Forecast: 1,600 – 2,000

The smallest reduction of any jurisdiction in 2025–26. Most people overlook Canberra. That is a mistake.

The ACT's Canberra Matrix is transparent, merit-based, and consistent — a genuine contrast to some of the opacity in larger state programs. And here is what too many applicants do not realise: Canberra counts as regional for the Subclass 491. The 15-point bonus. A professional labour market of government, defence, technology, and universities. World-class amenity. This is one of the best underused strategic pathways in Australia for applicants in the 65–79 points range.

ACT graduates and applicants with a skilled partner receive significant Canberra Matrix points. If you have studied or worked in Canberra, your case for nomination is substantially stronger.

🟢 Tasmania — If You Are in Healthcare or Education, Look Here First.

2025–26: 1,850 (↓35%) | 2026–27 Forecast: 1,800 – 2,200

Weekly invitation rounds. Transparent weekly reporting. Occupation lists updated to include a wider range of health and allied health roles. Tasmania has made its priorities clear: healthcare, allied health, early childhood education, construction, and regional agriculture.

Remote work criteria have been clarified — knowledge workers who can work remotely while residing in Tasmania now have a defined pathway. Cost of living is lower than the mainland capitals. Housing is more affordable. If you are a registered nurse or allied health professional who has been spinning your wheels in the competition for NSW or Victoria nomination, Tasmania deserves serious consideration.

🟢 Northern Territory — Small. Genuine. Worth Considering.

2025–26: 1,650 (↑3%) | 2026–27 Forecast: 1,650 – 2,000

Small allocation, acute needs, real opportunity for applicants in the right occupations. Medical practitioners, nurses, allied health, teachers, engineers, and ICT professionals are wanted in Darwin, Alice Springs, and regional centres. Competition is materially lower than the southern states.

NT Graduate pathway for Charles Darwin University alumni provides an additional avenue. Note: the NT portal has experienced closures during peak periods. Do not assume it is open — check the official website before planning any submission.

The 189 Visa: Is the Comeback Real?

The Subclass 189 grants permanent residency immediately. No state nomination. No employer. Just your points and your skills assessment. It has been in decline since the pandemic — approximately 7,000 invitations in 2025–26, compared with over 44,000 in 2018–19.

The March 2026 Home Affairs briefing to the MIA, as reported by VisaHQ and NS Legal, signals a recovery is being actively modelled. A revived 189 would be the most significant shift in Australia's skilled migration settings in years. State governments are lobbying Canberra to protect their own 190 and 491 programs if 189 places expand — which tells you the signal is being taken seriously.

If you are sitting above 85 points, have a current skills assessment, and have been unable to secure state nomination, keep your EOI current and your documents decision-ready. Budget night may be the moment.

Humanitarian Program 2026–27

Separate from the permanent program. The Department of Home Affairs published the Humanitarian Program 2026–27 Discussion Paper on 5 March 2026 — the annual public consultation. The humanitarian program has sat at 20,000 places since 2023–24. Labor promised 27,000 in its 2021 pre-election platform. That promise has not been kept.

The Community Refugee Integration and Settlement (CRISP) program — 200 places — has been made permanent from 2026–27, funded at $3.5 million over three years. A positive step. Not sufficient to address the scale of global displacement.

Offshore processing at Nauru continues at a cost of $581 million — with approximately 30 people remaining on the island. Total cost since 2012: over $13 billion. The numbers require no commentary.

Net Overseas Migration: The Bigger Picture

Understanding the difference between the permanent program and Net Overseas Migration matters.

YearNOM Outcome / Forecast

2022–23528,000 (peak)

2023–24435,000

2024–25260,000 (forecast)

2025–26~260,000 (tracking below forecast)

2026–27225,000 (Treasury forecast — government target)

2027–28 onwards225,000 (stabilised)

The NOM moderation is largely being delivered through the temporary stream — stricter student visa settings, reduced working holiday maker inflows, and increased departures as the post-pandemic cohort moves on. This creates an important dynamic: the government can claim NOM is falling while maintaining or even slightly expanding the permanent program. These are not contradictory positions. They reflect where the adjustment is actually happening.

What Every Applicant Should Do Before 1 July 2026

State nomination (190/491): Be decision-ready before the new program year opens. Skills assessment current. English test valid. Passport in date. State-specific documents prepared. Most states begin invitation rounds in September — the applicants who receive early invitations were ready in July.

65–79 points: The 491 regional visa with its 15-point bonus was designed for you. ACT (Canberra counts as regional), Tasmania, Queensland regional, and SA regional are realistic pathways. Three years of genuine regional residence leads directly to the 191 permanent visa.

Employer-sponsored: Lodge the ENS nomination now. The backlog is at ~70,000 and growing. Time in the queue is the one thing you cannot recover.

85+ points: Watch Budget night. If the 189 allocation recovers as signalled, there will be points-tested permanent visa invitation rounds that bypass state governments entirely. Have your EOI current.

Partner visa: The backlog is heading toward 120,000. Do not delay. Every month added is another month further back in a queue the government has chronically underfunded.

The Bottom Line

Australia needs migration. That is not a political opinion. It is economic fact. Half its doctors. Half its nurses. A quarter of the construction workers building its houses. The entire argument for slashing migration below sustainable levels runs directly into one question: who runs the hospitals, who builds the homes, who cares for the elderly?

What a good 2026–27 program looks like: ✅ Maintain 185,000 and expand modestly to 190,000 to address structural backlogs ✅ Revive the 189 visa with a meaningful allocation recovery ✅ Expand the partner visa planning level — 40,500 is indefensible given a 120,000 backlog ✅ Deliver state nomination allocations closer to the 33,000 planning level ✅ Fund the Department of Home Affairs to clear the 432,300 bridging visa queue

What would be a shambles: Another cut-and-paste program. Another delayed announcement. Another year where states are told 33,000 and handed 20,350. That is not planning. That is managing optics while the system falls further behind.

Budget night is 12 May. We will know soon enough.