Upcoming Federal Budget and Australia's Permanent Migration Program 2026-27: What's Coming, What's Broken, and What You Need to Do Now
LAST UPDATED 10 MAY 2026
PROGRAM YEAR 2026-27
FEDERAL BUDGET : 12 MAY
Migration Down Under
Budget Night is Tuesday 12 May 2026. Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers the Federal Budget at 7:30 pm AEST. The 2026-27 migration program announcement is expected on Budget night or within days. This article will be updated the moment numbers drop. Everything below is our expert pre-Budget briefing is built on official sources, ministerial statements, and industry intelligence.
What Actually Happened in 2025-26
Let's be straight about the baseline before we talk about what comes next.
On 2 September 2025, five days after the first anti-immigration march hit the streets; the government finally announced the 2025-26 program at 185,000 places. Same as the year before. Same composition. Former Deputy Secretary of Immigration Dr Abul Rizvi described it plainly as a "cut and paste job" that "took no account of changing circumstances, application rates, backlogs, or demographic trends."
The government was politically spooked. It delayed. It played it safe. The result was a program that left a system in genuine distress and unaddressed. Here is what that distress looks like heading into Budget night:
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432,300 bridging visa holders; a record high. People lawfully in Australia, waiting for decisions on applications already lodged. A visa system running on fumes.
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Approximately 425,000 permanent visa applications in the pipeline roughly 125,000 more than pre-pandemic levels.
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Approximately 120,000 partner visa applications projected in the backlog by 30 June 2026. A crisis building since 2009. Kicked down the road by every government since.
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Approximately 70,000 ENS applications stuck in the queue. Employers waiting. Workers waiting. People choosing Canada, the UK, and Germany because Australia is too slow.
Call it what it is. A visa system that has been underfunded, under-managed, and politically manipulated for the better part of a decade. Budget 2026-27 is the moment to fix it. Or the moment to fail again'
Shortcut to Migration: A pathway to failure
A Quick Fix?
Mass migration, lowering bar, will only increase non qualified talent pool rather than bringing top talents to the Country. ICT graduates are sitting with 90-95 points working in their occupation. These are the talent pool needs to be prioritised, not the ones with 65 points failing to reach English proficiency level, not the ones considering protection visa as an option. A quick fix is not a solution, a consistent fix is the solution.
Protection Visa Scam
Growing Misuse of Protection Visa
Protection visa came into light more after the military coup in Myanmar, many who were here took advantage and applied, leap-frogged applicants with higher point score, more capability and more technical ability. There's a growing misuse of protection visa by working holiday visa holders. There is no proper follow up, fact check and control. "Protection visa is not an option, it must not be another visa option. It's for genuine applicants who genuinely needs refuge.
2025-26 State Nomination: The Gap nobody talks about loudly enough
The government set a planning level of 33,000 state nomination places. It then issued 20,350. That is a 38% shortfall between what was promised and what was delivered and which saw staggering less allocations for states on Y2Y comparison with, 28% less for New South Wales, 32% less for Victoria, 32% less for Western Australia, 41% less for South Australia, 35% less for Tasmania, 3% up for Northern Territory and a astounding 117% increase for Queensland.
South Australia was hit hardest with a 41% cut despite Premier Malinauskas lobbying consistently and coherently for more. NSW, Victoria, and WA were each cut by roughly a third. These are not minor adjustments but are structural constraints that made 2025-26 the most competitive state nomination year in recent memory; point cut-offs above 90 in ICT and engineering, regularly. 90 is not enough for few states for applicants in some states, even for applicants who are working in their nominated occupation, have superior English and have done whatever needs to done but yet stays in limbo. Queensland was the standout. More than doubling its allocation on the back of real, sustained economic demand. But, Queensland state policy is not the most convenient one for applicants, despite QLD being the only state to have 100,000 population in more than 7 cities, there is not much study options for International students to have incentive to move to Queensland in the very first place. What happens? Cities clutter, regional migration fails.
Budget Night 2026: What Is Actually at Stake
This is the first proper migration budget of Labor's second term. No election to hide behind. No more "holding budget" excuses.
Treasurer Chalmers has flagged a productivity package and a savings package. Immigration Minister Tony Burke has said repeatedly that Australia cannot run its health system or build its houses without migration. Treasury has already done the modelling. Net Overseas Migration is forecast at 225,000 for 2026-27; down from 260,000 in 2025-26, and well below the extraordinary post-pandemic peaks of 528,000 (2022-23) and 435,000 (2023-24).
The permanent program at 185,000 is the engine of skilled intake. If the government wants to hit 225,000 NOM while reducing the temporary visa backlog chaos, a modest permanent program increase is the logical and defensible move.
The 189 visa signal: In a closed-door briefing to the Migration Institute of Australia on 12 March 2026; minutes of which were published by Sydney law firm NS Legal and reported by VisaHQ; senior Department of Home Affairs officials indicated the Skilled Independent (Subclass 189) visa could "recover substantially" in 2026-27. Officials are modelling higher quotas: unemployment is below 4% and regional skill shortages persist. The 189 grants permanent residency with no state or employer nomination. Its revival would be the biggest single shift in Australia's skilled migration settings since the pandemic.
The partner visa reckoning: The April 2026 cabinet submission circulating in policy circles recommends expanding the partner visa planning level above 40,500 alongside tighter eligibility criteria. Acting here is not generosity; it is legal obligation. A backlog of 120,000 partner applications is a humanitarian failure with legal dimensions. And yet scams go on under the table. Taking away quotas from genuine skilled migrants. A loophole which exists and continuing it's pattern. Country profile for partner visa shows astounding figures, with increase number of applications from China, Philippines and Vietnam applying just after hitting benchmark timeframe.
Tony Burke's Stand
Let's call some things what they are. Burke has been doing the media rounds ahead of Budget night. This is what he has said, without the spin: "Half of our doctors now are born overseas. Half of our registered nurses are born overseas. About a quarter of the tradespeople we need to build homes are born overseas. We can't run our health system or build the houses that we need without immigration now." - Pawan Luthra Podcast, April 2026, covered by The Nightly.
"It's not like you could have unlimited immigration without creating a problem with housing and infrastructure. So we need to make sure that it is managed and it's paced." That second statement is new ground for Burke. For years Labor avoided explicit migration parameters. This marks a genuine shift; the first time Burke has acknowledged the trade-off openly. Burke was expected to "put some detail into these statements when he announces the 2026-27 Migration Program later this month." On the Opposition's proposals, Burke was direct: Taylor's policy had "nothing to do with the national interest and is entirely about sending a vibe to One Nation."
Sustainable Population Australia amplified by One Nation has called for net migration of around 70,000 a year. Less than a third of current levels.The Parliamentary Budget Office has costed the Coalition's proposed 25% cut to the permanent program. The fiscal impacts are negative. A 70% reduction would be in an entirely different league. Every mainstream economic model including Treasury's own confirms Australia needs between 160,000 and 220,000 permanent migrants per year to sustain GDP, maintain workforce numbers, and fund the pension and healthcare system for an ageing population. You cannot simultaneously want a properly funded healthcare system and a migration level of 70,000 a year. The numbers do not work. Yet again, migration becomes a political agenda, the numbers look good, but skilled migration fails.
The 189 Visa: Is the Comeback Real?
The Subclass 189 grants permanent residency immediately. No state nomination. No employer. Just your points and your skills assessment. It has been in decline since the pandemic approximately 7,000 invitations in 2025-26, compared with over 44,000 in 2018-19. The March 2026 Home Affairs briefing to the MIA, signals a recovery is being actively modelled. A revived 189 would be the most significant shift in Australia's skilled migration settings in years. State governments are lobbying Canberra to protect their own 190 and 491 programs if 189 places expand which tells you the signal is being taken seriously. If you are sitting above 85 points, have a current skills assessment, and have been unable to secure state nomination, keep your EOI current and your documents decision-ready. Budget night may be the moment.
What Every Applicant Should Do Before 1 July 2026
State nomination (190/491): Be decision-ready before the new program year opens. Skills assessment current. English test valid. Passport in date. State-specific documents prepared. Most states begin invitation rounds in September the applicants who receive early invitations were ready in July.
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Employer-sponsored: Lodge the ENS nomination now. The backlog is at approximately 70,000 and growing. Time in the queue is the one thing you cannot recover.
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Applicants with 85+ points: Watch Budget night. If the 189 allocation recovers as signalled, there will be points-tested permanent visa invitation rounds that bypass state governments entirely. Have your EOI current.
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Partner visa: The backlog is heading toward 120,000. Do not delay. Every month added is another month further back in a queue the government has chronically underfunded.
Avoiding Shambles
What would be a shambles: Another cut-and-paste program. Another delayed announcement. Another year where states are told 33,000 and handed 20,350. That is not planning. That is managing optics while the system falls further behind. Budget night is 12 May. We will know soon enough. Nearly 3 million temporary visa holders currently, and critics like Sustainable Population Australia argue converting large numbers to permanent residency would strain housing, infrastructure, and services. Only a small fraction of recent migrants work in construction trades despite the housing shortage. A mass scale up can also visibly welcome a pool of applicants who fell below par in points system. The system and the policy does not have to accommodate every one who is in Australia. Key is to upgrade the skilled points system, cut-out factors like NAATI CCL, and focus on competency, english language ability, work experience and cultural integration. No more protection visa loophole, no more partner visa scams, no more sponsorship scam, only quality should persist, skillset should persist, and hence 189 must revive.
Frequently Asked Question
Has the 2026-27 program been officially announced?
No. Federal Budget is 12 May 2026. Formal announcement expected that night or within days. This article is pre-Budget expert analysis only it will be updated immediately upon official confirmation.
Will the cap go above 185,000?
Our forecast: a modest increase to 185,000-190,000. A major jump contradicts the NOM stabilisation message. A cut contradicts the economic evidence and the government's own stated position on healthcare and construction.
Will state nomination allocations improve on 2025-26?
Yes; modestly. States are united in demanding more. Expect actual allocations in the 22,000-26,000 range rather than the 2025-26 figure of 20,350. The gap between the 33,000 planning level and actual allocation is likely to persist.
Which state is the best bet for 2026-27?
Depends entirely on your occupation, there is no one size fits all. Alignment between your profile and the state's stated priorities is everything. Chasing the biggest allocation is not a strategy.
I submitted an ROI in 2025–26 and received nothing. Am I still eligible?
In most states, yes - active ROIs carry over. Review and update your EOI to ensure it is accurate and competitive for 2026-27. In Queensland, you may submit a new ROI if you now meet the 190 criteria.
STAY AHEAD OF THE 2026-27 OPENING
Programs move fast once it reopens. Be first to know when the next intake launches.
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