Key Insights: Visa Category Trends and Projections

Employer Sponsored Visa

• Continued growth driven by demand in construction, healthcare, and energy sectors

• Supportive policies for sponsored skilled workers

• Prediction: Up to 45,000 placements

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Skilled Independent Visa

• Reduced intake aligned with housing and infrastructure constraints in major cities

• Competitive points threshold likely to remain

• Prediction: Stabilising around 15,000

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Regional Migration Visa

• Regional migration remains a federal and state priority

• Demand-led occupations in Tasmania, South Australia, and Northern Territory

• Prediction: Growth to 35,000 allocations

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State and Territory Nominated Visas

• South Australia expected to receive a boost (construction, early childhood, net zero roles)

• Victoria remains focused on early childhood and aged care

• Prediction: Increase to 34,000

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BIIP and Global Talent Program

• Business visa reforms continue; intake likely to reduce further

• Global Talent to remain targeted but smaller in scale

• Prediction: BIIP: 800 | GTI: 3,500

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Regional State Migration Focus: 2025-26 Outlook

State/Territory 2025-26 Focus

Queensland: Limited intake; regional Queensland prioritised

Tasmania: Regional growth; focus on education and healthcare

South Australia: Major increase anticipated; key sectors: construction, early childhood, renewables

Victoria: Continued emphasis on early childhood education

Western Australia: Continued demand for occupations in key sectors including government incentive for employees. key sectors: construction, teaching, social work.

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Why Study in Regional Australia?

Studying in regional Australia remains a strategic pathway for skilled migration, especially under the new multi-year framework.

✅ Key Benefits:

• More migration points (up to 5 extra for regional graduates)

• Longer post-study work rights (up to 3-4 years)

• Easier access to state/territory nomination programs

• Lower cost of living

• Greater community support and visa pathways

Popular regional study hubs: Adelaide, Perth, Geelong, Woolongong, Darwin, Canberra, Hobart etc.

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📉 NOM Reduction & Long-Term Planning

Australia’s Net Overseas Migration (NOM) will decline over the next few years:

Year Projected NOM

2023-24: 446,000

2024-25: 335,000

2025-26: 260,000

2026-29: 225,000 (annual avg)

This underscores a shift from volume-driven migration to value and outcome-based migration policy.

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📌 Conclusion

The 2025-26 Australia migration program is set to become more strategic, regionalised, and skills-focused. States like South Australia and Tasmania are poised for stronger allocations, while national attention shifts to green economy jobs, early childhood education, and construction.