Australia’s State Nomination Allocations 2024-25: Strategic Insights and 2025-26 Forecast

Newsted Global
Jun 24
4 min read

With the Department of Home Affairs releasing the 2024-25 state and territory nomination allocations, international students, skilled migrants, and migration agents are closely watching how current trends will shape the 2025-26 migration planning levels. As per Newsted Global's expert analysis and ongoing consultation with migration industry stakeholders, the upcoming year is expected to reflect continuity in policy intent-with strategic adjustments based on labour shortages, regional development, and sectoral priorities.

Below is a breakdown of current allocations and forward-looking predictions for 2025-26:

Current State Nomination Allocations (2024-25)

State	Subclass 190	Subclass 491
ACT	1,000	800
NSW	3,000	2,000
NT	800	800
QLD	600	600
SA	3,000	800
TAS	2,100	760
VIC	3,000	2,000
WA	3,000	2,000
Total	16,500	9,760

Newsted Global Forecast for 2025-26 Nomination Trends

1. South Australia (SA): A Rising Power in Regional Nomination

With the state already holding one of the highest allocations for Subclass 190, we anticipate an upward revision of SA’s Subclass 491 quota in 2025-26. This aligns with its economic development strategy focusing on:

Construction & infrastructure
Early childhood and school teaching
Allied health and aged care

SA is expected to mirror WA’s structure more closely, resulting in equitable allocations for both 190 and 491 streams. SA’s progressive migration policies and regional lifestyle appeal will continue to attract offshore and onshore skilled applicants.

2. Western Australia (WA): Sustained High Quota Amid Workforce Shortages

WA’s consistent 3,000 allocations for Subclass 190 and 2,000 for Subclass 491 underscore its commitment to skilled migration, especially in remote areas. With booming activity in mining, civil projects, and healthcare, WA is expected to:

Maintain or increase its current quotas
Focus heavily on applicants with regional commitment and work experience
Offer targeted invitations under building trades, nursing, and education

3. Victoria (VIC): Still the Most Competitive, Especially for Early Childhood

Victoria remains a top destination due to its metropolitan appeal and education infrastructure. For 2025-26, VIC is expected to:

Retain the highest number of nominations for Subclass 190
Slightly streamline its Subclass 491 process for regional campuses and post-study workers
Prioritize sectors such as early childhood education, nursing, and IT

The competition will stay intense, especially among international graduates, due to the high demand and limited seats.

4. New South Wales (NSW): Possible Quota Tightening, Higher Bar for Entry

As the most populated and popular state, NSW might see a modest contraction in quota, or stricter selection under 491 and 190 visas. Policy directions may emphasize:

Higher English and work experience thresholds
Focus on targeted critical occupations only
Greater weightage for regional NSW applicants

NSW remains highly desirable but increasingly competitive-particularly Sydney, which may see policy tightening.

5. Tasmania (TAS): Quietly Strategic with Streamlined Policy

TAS continues to reward genuine commitment to the state. We foresee a modest increase in Subclass 491 quotas and continued support for:

TAS graduates and long-term residents
Small business owners and regional contributors
Applicants in aged care, hospitality, and teaching

The streamlined graduate pathway will likely remain in place, similar to NT, offering certainty to onshore applicants.

6. Australian Capital Territory (ACT): More Regional Focus Ahead

Canberra is expected to become more attractive under Subclass 491 in the upcoming cycle.

Slight increase in 491 allocations
Policy refinement to support graduates from Canberra-based institutions
Continued emphasis on genuine employment offers and local contribution

ACT's competitiveness is improving, especially for professionals in public administration, education, and social services.

7. Northern Territory (NT): Lower Quota, But Easier Access for Genuine Graduates

NT’s allocation may remain modest, but low competition and strategic incentives make it one of the easiest pathways to PR for those who meet local residency and employment criteria. Expect:

Stable or slightly increased quotas
Easy access for NT graduates, even with modest points
Strong focus on regional retention, agriculture, trades, and aged care

8. Queensland (QLD): Cautiously Restrained with Regional Emphasis

Queensland’s quota remains among the lowest despite growing interest.

Similar numbers for 2025-26
Continued push for regional QLD occupations (Darling Downs, Rockhampton, Townsville)
Opportunities limited to high-demand fields like construction, trades, and healthcare

Policy will remain cautious due to high backlog and slower nomination processing.

What to expect?

Considering the current planning ceiling and recent policy signals, the overall migration planning level is likely to remain stable in 2025-26. However, state-level shifts will occur in response to economic needs, labour shortages, and interstate competitiveness.

In summary:

SA, WA, TAS, and ACT are likely to gain ground in 491 allocations
NT offers low-barrier PR pathways for committed residents
VIC and NSW will continue to be highly selective and competitive

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