top of page

Australia’s State Nomination Allocations 2024-25: Strategic Insights and 2025-26 Forecast

With the Department of Home Affairs releasing the 2024-25 state and territory nomination allocations, international students, skilled migrants, and migration agents are closely watching how current trends will shape the 2025-26 migration planning levels. As per Newsted Global's expert analysis and ongoing consultation with migration industry stakeholders, the upcoming year is expected to reflect continuity in policy intent-with strategic adjustments based on labour shortages, regional development, and sectoral priorities.

Below is a breakdown of current allocations and forward-looking predictions for 2025-26:

Current State Nomination Allocations (2024-25)

State

Subclass 190

Subclass 491

ACT

1,000

800

NSW

3,000

2,000

NT

800

800

QLD

600

600

SA

3,000

800

TAS

2,100

760

VIC

3,000

2,000

WA

3,000

2,000

Total

16,500

9,760

Newsted Global Forecast for 2025-26 Nomination Trends

1. South Australia (SA): A Rising Power in Regional Nomination

With the state already holding one of the highest allocations for Subclass 190, we anticipate an upward revision of SA’s Subclass 491 quota in 2025-26. This aligns with its economic development strategy focusing on:

  • Construction & infrastructure

  • Early childhood and school teaching

  • Allied health and aged care

SA is expected to mirror WA’s structure more closely, resulting in equitable allocations for both 190 and 491 streams. SA’s progressive migration policies and regional lifestyle appeal will continue to attract offshore and onshore skilled applicants.


2. Western Australia (WA): Sustained High Quota Amid Workforce Shortages

WA’s consistent 3,000 allocations for Subclass 190 and 2,000 for Subclass 491 underscore its commitment to skilled migration, especially in remote areas. With booming activity in mining, civil projects, and healthcare, WA is expected to:

  • Maintain or increase its current quotas

  • Focus heavily on applicants with regional commitment and work experience

  • Offer targeted invitations under building trades, nursing, and education


3. Victoria (VIC): Still the Most Competitive, Especially for Early Childhood

Victoria remains a top destination due to its metropolitan appeal and education infrastructure. For 2025-26, VIC is expected to:

  • Retain the highest number of nominations for Subclass 190

  • Slightly streamline its Subclass 491 process for regional campuses and post-study workers

  • Prioritize sectors such as early childhood education, nursing, and IT

The competition will stay intense, especially among international graduates, due to the high demand and limited seats.


4. New South Wales (NSW): Possible Quota Tightening, Higher Bar for Entry

As the most populated and popular state, NSW might see a modest contraction in quota, or stricter selection under 491 and 190 visas. Policy directions may emphasize:

  • Higher English and work experience thresholds

  • Focus on targeted critical occupations only

  • Greater weightage for regional NSW applicants

NSW remains highly desirable but increasingly competitive-particularly Sydney, which may see policy tightening.


5. Tasmania (TAS): Quietly Strategic with Streamlined Policy

TAS continues to reward genuine commitment to the state. We foresee a modest increase in Subclass 491 quotas and continued support for:

  • TAS graduates and long-term residents

  • Small business owners and regional contributors

  • Applicants in aged care, hospitality, and teaching

The streamlined graduate pathway will likely remain in place, similar to NT, offering certainty to onshore applicants.


6. Australian Capital Territory (ACT): More Regional Focus Ahead

Canberra is expected to become more attractive under Subclass 491 in the upcoming cycle.

  • Slight increase in 491 allocations

  • Policy refinement to support graduates from Canberra-based institutions

  • Continued emphasis on genuine employment offers and local contribution

ACT's competitiveness is improving, especially for professionals in public administration, education, and social services.


7. Northern Territory (NT): Lower Quota, But Easier Access for Genuine Graduates

NT’s allocation may remain modest, but low competition and strategic incentives make it one of the easiest pathways to PR for those who meet local residency and employment criteria. Expect:

  • Stable or slightly increased quotas

  • Easy access for NT graduates, even with modest points

  • Strong focus on regional retention, agriculture, trades, and aged care


8. Queensland (QLD): Cautiously Restrained with Regional Emphasis

Queensland’s quota remains among the lowest despite growing interest.

  • Similar numbers for 2025-26

  • Continued push for regional QLD occupations (Darling Downs, Rockhampton, Townsville)

  • Opportunities limited to high-demand fields like construction, trades, and healthcare

Policy will remain cautious due to high backlog and slower nomination processing.


What to expect?

Considering the current planning ceiling and recent policy signals, the overall migration planning level is likely to remain stable in 2025-26. However, state-level shifts will occur in response to economic needs, labour shortages, and interstate competitiveness.

In summary:

  • SA, WA, TAS, and ACT are likely to gain ground in 491 allocations

  • NT offers low-barrier PR pathways for committed residents

  • VIC and NSW will continue to be highly selective and competitive


To get latest migration news straight to your inbox, subscribe to our monthly newsletter! Subscribe: https://www.newstedglobal.com/australian-migration-news Stay up to date, make informed decision. Book Free Consultation about your next visa option, migration pathway or study options: https://www.newstedglobal.com/book-consultation Not sure where to start? Just say "hi" (sms/whatsApp: +61410478759) - we’ll take it from there.

We’ll listen, understand what matters to you, and guide you step by step, at your pace. ok-consultation https://www.newstedglobal.com/book-consultation

 
 
 

Comments


Recent Posts

Contact Us

Address

HQ: Level 17, Chifley Tower, Sydney 2000, Australia

Melbourne Branch: Level 27/101 Collins St, Melbourne VIC 3000

Phone/WhatsApp/Viber

Phone: +61 2 9375 2291

Mobile/WhatsApp: +61 410 478 759

Email

Connect

  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Instagram
bottom of page